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H1N1 Flu Update No. 2: Surprising Numbers
| November 6, 2009 | |
| Dr. Gary Huber : Head Medical Ego |
Are you still confused about the H1N1 flu issue? You should be. Information is all over the board and coming from all directions, leaving us all to wonder who to believe. This issue has grown far outside the realm of health care and is now a social media issue. In other words, medical science likes to rely on controlled studies for its decision making (even though that simple rule is violated on a daily basis). So with a rapidly changing issue like H1N1, where there is no time for controlled studies, we are flying by the seat of our pants. We all want answers that are certain and reliable but I am here to tell you that there really are none. The best we can do is sift through the CDC’s updates looking for clues. So here are the latest clues.
Down Under
On the other side of the world where their summer is our winter, the Australian flu season runs from May to October. The Australian Government posted a report, dated September 11, with the following findings:
They had initially estimated a 20% occurrence rate for the H1N1 resulting in an estimated 4.3 million cases with 80,000 hospitalizations and 6,000 deaths. The numbers as of September, with the flu occurrence clearly on the decline, showed only 4,642 hospitalizations and 169 deaths. So obviously it was not as severe as anticipated. In fact they overestimated its severity by more than 90%.
Tamiflu or not to Tamiflu
The WHO (no, not the rock band and boy did I just date myself) the World Health Organization has recently reported that there has been some resistant strains of the H1N1 to the drug Tamiflu. The Cochrane collaborative had earlier reported that Tamiflu was 70% effective in reducing flu symptoms. So far there are only 21 reported cases of Tamiflu resistance so I think it is still an effective drug option.
H1N1 in America
Now on to the U.S. There is talk that the H1N1 has already peaked. The original estimates were based on its early rise and early predictions of a peak by week 42, which ended October 24.
Reports out of Georgia released by the CDC state that the numbers in Georgia peaked in late September and by mid October; the hospitalizations secondary to flu were cut in half. They are quick to point out that a second rise can occur. We’ll wait and watch.
As of week 42, the CDC reported that of blood tests done; 42.1% of total specimens were positive for flu and of these 66.1% were H1N1.This means that out of 19,642 specimens the H1N1 occurrence was 5,453 cases or a rate of 27%.
Now I didn’t give you all those numbers just to confuse you, I want to show the mass confusion coming out of just one source, the CDC.
A report last week from the CDC, just 7 or 8 days after the 42 week report, tells a different tale. The CDC receives reports from all states around the country and after they review them for accuracy they release the numbers to the public. Before I give you those numbers I want you to keep the following in mind:
Flu Testing
How flu testing works: The “rapid flu test” is a nasal swab and has no ability to distinguish typical influenza A from the 2009 H1N1 influenza A. It is also not very accurate with various reports estimating a 50 to 70% accuracy rate. In other words it misses a lot of actual flu cases and can also provide false positive results.
The other test is a blood test and it is the only reliable way to distinguish H1N1 from typical influenza A. Problem is, it takes 3 or more days to get results so by the time you have the result your flu is beyond acute treatment. The CDC’s recommendation way back in the third week of July was to abandon the blood tests because they saw them as a waste of health care resources for an issue they felt certain, was predominantly H1N1.
Despite the CDC’s recommendation to abandon the blood tests, many states continue to perform them and here is what they showed.
Updated Numbers
In California they tested 13,704 blood specimens and found 296 cases of H1N1, that’s just 2%. Another 12% showed other flu forms such influenza A and B. And a whopping 86% showed NO FLU at all in these people who presented sick enough to warrant a flu test.
Florida had 8,853 specimens of which 1,575 or 17% were positive for H1N1 while 83% were negative for all other flu viruses. The great state of Alaska had only 722 specimens and of those just 11 tests or 1% were H1N1 positive, 5% were seasonal flu and 675 (93%) were negative for ANY flu. And finally lets get Georgia in there with 3,117 specimens of which 74 or just 2.4% being positive for H1N1 and 97% negative.
Maybe those Australian numbers make more sense now. Maybe this issue is not just ALL H1N1, ALL the time. And if the “peak” has past, does that change the value of a vaccine now? What does this do to your risk vs. benefit analysis?
These numbers, when taken together, show that this giant “run for the hills” H1N1 scare has most likely been just another media hype. The numbers show that of patients that showed up looking sick enough to do a flu test, less than 8% of these folks had H1N1, maybe another 10 to 12 % had influenza A and the vast grand majority of them, more than 80% had no flu of ANY KIND.
So what did most of these so-called H1N1 victims have? We don’t know, maybe a bad cold or some other viral syndrome but it was not H1N1. Meanwhile the governmental agencies that started this firestorm are looking a little goofy and we sit waiting for answers. I suspect that a year from now (if not sooner) we will be reading in the media about the big H1N1 hoax of 2009.
So this flu season continues to be a big soap opera with lots of drama. But for the alarmists out there that were screaming the sky was falling and millions would die, there doesn’t seem to be any wind to float their story. So stay healthy as best you can. Eat well, take your vitamins and avoid sick people.
Things are already looking up.
Related:
Swine Flu (H1N1) – Part 1: How Worried Should You Be?
Swine Flu (H1N1) – Part 2: Should We Be Rushing an H1N1 Vaccine?
Swine Flu (H1N1 – Part 3: How Should You Protect Yourself?
H1N1 Flu Update – How Are We Doing?
[10 Comments] [10 Comments]
Jo Wehage
Wow, just wow! Though we really should not be that surprised by this! I wonder if/when this will get main stream coverage? I really hope it does. Thanks for working to get the truth out there!
WOW, Dr. Huber thanks for breaking it down for us. Great article and analysis of the facts straight from the CDC itself.
I’m glad this story has reached some new folks. Many of us have been trying to spread the word that the swine flu is more fear-mongering than pandemic. There are also many problems with vaccines and studies showing Tamiflu ineffective. Eating right (most of the general information given on that subject is wrong as well) is very important. Getting enough sunshine is huge. Vitamin C, of course, is important as is getting enough minerals into your diet. It all gets down to getting back to basics.
For more common-sense health information and to help spread the word that natural prevention is the best health insurance anyone can get. Please visit: http://www.newhealthbasics.com/
To Health and Happiness,
Jeff Cordeiro
I was sincerely on the fence about getting the vaccine for my two boys this week…especially since they have both already fallen prey to H1N1 this season (we were very lucky and they both had mild cases and recovered soon thereafter). I appreciate the information and feel much better about making my decision – NOT to get the vaccinations and rather make sure I am pumping my boys full of healthy foods and vitamins!
While I agree with much of your blog, I don’t agree with all of it. The WHO has an obligation to let people know the imminent dangers to the public worldwide. Frankly all they can do is play with numbers and throw some out there for the public. Same goes for our government and public health departments, they must warn of the possibilities. Basically they are damned if they do or damned if they don’t. Which would you prefer?
I am sure on one hand test show X amount of people who didn’t have either flu, but on the same token there are many people who have flu symptoms that can’t afford to go to the doctor or don’t seek medical care. The numbers can’t be accurate due to all those variables.
The people who look sick enough to be tested for the H1N1 are tested because many of them have other underlying health issues (I know this first hand dealing with it) and it would be negligent to not test someone with several of the same symptoms. That is common sense.
I think due to proper warnings more people are taking vitamins, practicing good hygiene diligently and eating healthy foods. Perhaps this has had an affect on the numbers. To call this H1N1 flu a hoax (next year) is too strong. It also sets people up for future disaster when a deadlier strain attacks and they ignore. Better to be safe than sorry.
Hi Marie,
Thanks for your spirited response; I love to hear from readers with strong conviction and passion. To address your point I do not feel that the public health offices are “damned if they do and damned if they don’t”. They simply have a duty to report all of the relevant information to the public so that we can make an intelligent decision. Withholding information until they decide how to spin it is what drives me crazy. Like the information I presented above, I would have liked the CDC and the media in general to report this information as loudly and as prominently as they reported the “death scare” fear mongering numbers that we have all seen to date. Don’t treat me like sheep, just give me the facts and credit the public with having a brain.
The numbers from the tests were very simple and very clear. Despite scare of overwhelming H1N1 infection in our community, the lab tests to date don’t reflect this as fact and don’t support the “theoretical assumptions” that have been made thus far. Simple.
My reference to this as a hoax is speculation. Just as the vaccine’s industry’s attempt to manufacture an effective vaccine is made on speculation. Just as the media whips this story into a frenzy is based on speculation. I did not call this a hoax. If you read my article I stated that “the media will be referring to this as a hoax”. The media will make a story out of the fact that the H1N1 wasn’t really a story.
As always, we are here to provide information for you so that you can make an informed decision regarding your health. Use the factual information as you see fit. We are not trying to make up your mind (that’s the governments agenda) we are simply here to report information and provide a perspective.
Both of my kids came down with something. When I asked to have them
tested at the Dr.’s office, they did the 5 minute nasal swab. It came back
positive. Here’s where it’s interesting – the Dr.’s words to me were,
“they’re positive for an A strain of the flu, and I’m just telling everyone
whose results come back positive to just assume it’s the swine flu”.
They were fine in 3-4 days. but was it H1N1????
Hi Bev,
The nasal swab is only able to detect influenza A, it is not able to distinguish whether it’s season flu versus H1N1 influenza A. Your doctor was likely offering a speculative guess as to the H1N1 possibility. As with most cases of flu, the issues passed in a few days and all is well. We will never know which flu bug it was. Glad to hear everyone is well at this time.
Just to add a little more perspective to the Australian figures, if you base the percentage on the actual occurrences, you find that the estimated hospitalizations were 172% and the estimated deaths were a whopping 355% of what actually occurred.
My daughter had the H1N1 flu shot and got VERY sick. Since I am older and not in the “risk” category, I did not take the shot. I had something the year before which I thought was more like this flu than anything I had in my life. I went to my doctor who said it was not the flu, but did not tests. I coughed for weeks, finally coughing up a “wad” which ended it. No antibiotics, nothing. This was before the big scare of H1N1. I still do not know if I had it, and nothing was known about it at that time. Anyway, I lived to tell about it, and I do think that this has been highly proclaimed to say the least. I guess we WILL have to wait and see, but the cold this year has been enough to wipe out a lot of illnesses, I think.